It will depend entirely upon nobody else but Chris Christie, the rotund RINO who is currently battling Jon Corzine, the incumbent Democrat Governor. Just as the 2008 Presidential election was John McCain’s to lose (and he promptly lost it), the outcome of the 2009 gubernatorial election rests entirely in Christie’s chubby hands.

The ever dependable Scott Rasmussen published the results of a poll today that has Christie four points ahead of Boss Tweed.

The latest numbers show Christie getting 45% of the vote, Corzine with 41% and Daggett at nine percent (9%). Over the past week, support for Christie is down two points, support for Corzine is down three points, and support for Daggett is up three. The number of undecideds is up a couple of points to five percent (5%).

However, the race may be even closer than those numbers suggest. When voters are asked their initial choice, 38% name Christie, 38% Corzine, and 16% prefer Daggett. But 57% of Daggett’s supporters say they could change their minds before election day. That dwarfs the number of swayable Corzine and Christie voters.

Among supporters of the governor, 27% say they could still change their minds while just 20% of Christie supporters say the same. A plurality of swayable Daggett supporters and undecided voters indicate they are likely to end up voting for Christie.

The possible game changer here? It’s the 57% of Daggett supporters who admitted they could switch allegiances once inside the voting booth. The obvious question is what, precisely, would impel them to change their votes?

Three factors come to mind:

1. Chris Daggett - The next three weeks are crucial for this candidate, who is still largely unknown among the electorate. His campaign funds are practically exhausted, so we can be confident there will be no blitz of media ads. Moreover, the RGA is already running several radio spots (and possibly TV spots - I don’t know, since I don’t watch television) attacking Daggett and equating him with Corzine. It’s up to Daggett to get his name out there and reinforce his support among a disaffected percentage of independent voters.

2. Jon Corzine - If he is to prevail in November, Corzine must continue attacking Christie relentlessly and start concentrating on Christie’s actual weaknesses, not his obesity. Aside from the fact that Christie is not the knight in shining anti-corruption armor that he makes himself out to be, there is also the fact that Christie has positively ZERO executive experience. Corzine needs to continually remind voters that these tough times - caused in large part by George Bush and the evil insurance companies, natch - call for steady leadership.

On the positive side, he needs to point out that he has experience governing the state and even though we are in turmoil, that experience is still valuable. He can drive the point home by capitalizing on Christie’s ill-fated admission that he would not do things all that much differently than Corzine would. If that’s the case, why bother voting for a political neophyte who only offers only empty promises and no real plan?

Hence, President Man-Child’s visit to the Garden State next week, where it’s a sure-fire guarantee that Obama will offer a grab bag of stimulus goodies that will go a long way to purchasing votes for Boss Tweed - especially if the Drive-Bys continue to trumpet the meme that the recession is over and happy days really are here again.

3. Chris Christie - It’s all up to Christie at this point. Any time or effort spent attacking Daggett is a waste. Ditto for Corzine - counter-intuitive as that seems. Remember the plurality of Daggett voters who indicated they might be swayed to vote for Christie? This is is the chance to sway them while simultaneously cementing a little bit more of his fractured base. My advice to him would be to come out swinging in the next three weeks with a cogent, logical and fearless plan for the economic salvation of this state - a gambit that will be necessary to offset the very real erosion in Christie’s polls that will occur in the wake of Obama’s visit. Now is the time for Christie to abandon the “Hey, I’m not Jon Corzine” strategy and embrace the “Hey, I’m Chris Christie and I have a plan to save this state” strategy.

There is also the matter of the Democrat GOTV effort - which generally tends to be more effective than its Republican counterpart - especially if the Republican base is dispirited and apathetic. Christie needs to encourage people to vote FOR him, not against Corzine - otherwise he risks losing them to Daggett or other candidates.

And let us not discount the effect that ACORN will have on voter turnout in Newark, Passaic, Camden and other urban centers, where the missing, the alien and the dead vote with astonishing regularity. What people seem to overlook is the fact that ACORN can only steal a close election. Were Christie eight points or more ahead in the polls there is nothing ACORN would be able to do to destroy that kind of lead. But at this point it’s neck-and-neck (anyone remember the recent Senate election in Minnesota?) and in that circumstance, ACORN can easily be the game changer.

Bottom line? This is gonna be a squeaker, as I have been saying all along. If Corzine takes my advice and Christie ignores my advice, Corzine will win - albeit by a very narrow margin. For his part, if Christie heeds my counsel and Boss Tweed goes his merry way, there is a chance the roly-poly RINO may yet pull his blubber out of the electoral fire.

It’s up to him now.