2009 Election Analysis - Virginia

voting-boothAll of the returns from all of the important elections are in and the results - in my humble opinion - are astounding when you parseĀ  the various contests individually and collectively. Overall, they hit just as I predicted they would - like a thunderclap - and the both the Drive-Bys and the Democrats reacted to it in precisely the fashion Rush Limbaugh predicted they would.

As you all know by now, the Republican Party captured the governor’s mansion in both New Jersey and Virginia. They also lost an upstate New York Congressional seat in the defeat of Doug Hoffman, who ran on the Conservative Party ticket.

In a previous post I analyzed the outcome of the special Congressional election held in District 23 in upstate New York. Long story short, it was a victory of sorts for both Movement Conservatives and Republicans. For the former, the argument for conservatism was amply demonstrated and conclusively proven by a candidate who came within four points of winning in a period of only three weeks; with regard to the latter, they were spared the embarrassment of sending a left-wing RINO to Congress. Hopefully, the GOP on both the state and national level will view this debacle as a teachable moment.

In Virginia the Republicans demonstrated very convincingly that the blue dye in which Old Dominion immersed itself in 2008 is anything but colorfast. Here are the results from yesterday’s gubernatorial contest:

virginia-election-map

Now contrast this with the results from 2008:

virginia-election-map-2008You can’t get a victory more decisive than one with an 18% margin.

McDonnell is undeniably conservative but also a clever politician, who crafted his conservative message in terms more palatable to suburban voters unaccustomed to the kind of rhetoric we often heard in the heyday of Ronald Reagan. Think of it as conservatism with a moderate veneer and you will realize at once why it worked.

Deeds got stomped, fair and square. I haven’t done a county-by-county comparison, but from what I’ve seen, the glow in the Hopium Hookah appears to have died out for a substantial percentage of the electorate in Virginia. The change for which many of them hoped and voted for in 2008 evaporated into massive federal spending and spiraling unemployment. The conservative caffeine in the black coffee of reality is now sobering up minds that, in a Bambi Kool-Aid induced stupor, pulled the lever for the Man-Child in 2008. The independents and guilt-ridden David Brooks/Peggy Noonan Republicans who cast their ballots for the sake of making history in 2008 have, over the course of a single year, now come to realize that being a part of history isn’t worth the price of destroying this republic. It can be summed up in two simple words: buyer’s remorse.

Deeds was wise in refusing campaign assistance from the White House. I’m tempted to believe he was sufficiently confident in the Obama coat-tail effect to coast him to victory, but my understanding of the nature of both politics and humanity tells me otherwise. Creigh Deeds is many things, but stupid isn’t one of them. He surfs the blogosphere like the rest of us and understood perfectly well the electorate all throughout the nation is waking up to the ugly reality that is Barack Obama. Having the Man-Child stump for him would be like having Tony Soprano make a pitch the Our Lady of Sorrows Annual Summer Carnival.

Needless to say, the Obama White House immediately threw him under the bus and is continuing to run back and forth over his prone body in spite of the results from New Jersey.

What makes all of this so much worse for the Obama administration is the down-ticket effect of McDonnell’s victory. The Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, Bill Bolling, trounced his Democrat opponent Jody Wagner by a 13 point margin. The Republican candidate for Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, defeated Democrat Stephen Shannon by a margin of 15 points.

In the state legislature the Republican party gained three seats:

Republicans have gained at least three seats to strengthen their grip on the House of Delegates.

However, they lost an influential delegate who has been embroiled in a scandal. Republican Delegate Phil Hamilton of Newport News lost his re-election bid to Robin Abbott. Hamilton, a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee is the subject of investigations by a House ethics panel and a federal grand jury into allegations that he arranged a $40,000-a-year job for himself at Old Dominion University as he steered state money to the school.

Republicans also lost an open seat formerly held by state GOP chairman Jeff Frederick.

But those GOP losses were more than offset by victories over five Democratic incumbents, giving Republicans a working majority of at least nine seats in the 100-member House. James Moorefield beat Dan Bowling in southwestern Virginia, and Chris Stolle ousted Joseph Bouchard in Virginia Beach. In Loudoun county, Thomas Greason defeated David Poisson.

In Fairfax County, James LeMunyon beat Chuck Caputo and Richard Anderson defeated Paul Nichols.

Overall, Virginia was an absolute rout as far as the Obama administration is concerned and you can be sure the Man-Child is smarting over this defeat - but not sulking nearly as deeply as he is over what happened in New Jersey.

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5 Comments

  1. the glow in the Hopium Hookah appears to have died out

    Well put. Hangovers are having a sobering effect, thank goodness!

  2. Chalk Virginia up to Max…

  3. Thanks for all these analyses. They really help to paint the picture.

    Nancy Pelosi: “We won, we won, we won!”

    I see dumb people.

  4. Funny, Charlotte!

    I am enjoying the after-show show!

  5. It’s worth a some buttered popcorn and raisinettes for sure.
    You couldn’t pay to see a movie as good as all of this.

    BTW, good to see you, Mad Dog - been missing you.

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